2026 U.S. Cannabis Market & Policy Outlook: Trends, Growth & Legal Expansion

Explore the latest 2026 industry trends in the U.S. cannabis market — from federal rescheduling and new state markets to growth projections and consumer behavior.

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Flower Girl

1/3/20261 min read

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The U.S. cannabis industry enters 2026 amid accelerated regulatory momentum and strategic market growth. A pivotal development shaping the year ahead is the federal rescheduling of cannabis — moving it from Schedule I toward Schedule III under the Controlled Substances Act — following a December 2025 executive order. This change is expected to open research opportunities, reduce tax burdens on cannabis businesses, and improve access to financial services.

At the state level, major new markets are emerging. Virginia’s adult‑use cannabis sales are now projected to launch by November 2026 under a framework favoring small operators and relatively low tax rates, creating one of the South’s first legal markets. Meanwhile, New York’s legal cannabis market saw explosive growth in 2025, with licensed dispensaries more than doubling and total sales surpassing $2.5 billion, contributing significantly to state and local tax revenues.

Growth forecasts for the overall U.S. cannabis market reflect this expanding landscape. By the end of 2025, total U.S. THC sales—including legal dispensary, illicit, and hemp‑derived markets—were expected to reach approximately $96.5 billion, with legal dispensary sales growing steadily year‑over‑year.

For industry participants and consumers alike, 2026 promises a blend of regulatory shifts, new market openings, and continued demand for diverse cannabis products — from flower and pre‑rolls to edibles and infused beverages.

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